Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 17, 2018 

The British pound rallied a little during the Monday session and reaches the level of 149.50 before apparent signs of exhaustion. Higher than 150 signifies exhaustion in the market with expected resistance. Thus, we could strike on the opportunity to short this pair. It looks like the market has overexpanded and faces strong psychological level above 150. 

Although it is still suggested to short this pair in a smaller move, the long-term selling will bring the rates back to 150. A break higher would give the green light to traders in applying the “buy and hold” strategy yet, the strong political tension around Britain could strengthen the Sterling pound for long-term. The pair will continue to chop around and eventually make way for some clarity that the trend lacks as of the moment. For the short term, sellers are anticipated to be present while more sellers will join in the long-term above the trend. Nevertheless, we should keep the possibilities open as it may change anytime. Noise will still be present because of the political tension in the U.K. and global risk appetite. Hence, small trades will be the ideal approach for this market since noise will be the main impulse in overall trading while headlines will likely cause sudden movements in short-term. 
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2018 

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The euro rallied at the beginning of the Tuesday session and reach up to 1.1750 prior to retreating back at 1.700 below, which were the trades began for the day. We can expect noise to be present in the pair considering that there are Brexit negotiations and a strong dollar. Yet, looking at the charts, clearly, it shows that the true resistance would be above 1.1850 while the floor of the pair can be found at 1.15 below. 

Given the high frequency in trading, there is a huge amount of volatility in the EUR/USD pair. At the end of the day, the 1.17 level offers support which is a good indicator or further goes up on Wednesday. Also, the 1.1675 level offers support where there is also a high demand. I assume that the market will look for value on dips, especially for hunters. Yet, traders should still be careful in putting money at stakes. Hence, I would suggest to trade slowly and then gradually add more to reach new fresh highs. 

In general, the pair could stay long in consolidation range which should be considered given that there will be a lot of noise and headlines could influence the pair for sudden movements.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 20, 2018 

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The single European currency had broken down amid trading course on Thursday while a lot of negativity continue to be in this market. Forecasts say that the market would likely continue to be volatile but the market is determined to move lower near the 1.15 region, an area which has been a significant support in the past and a little bit of buying pressure can be seen in this zone.  While the current point of at issue is whether or not traders can break down beneath that level. A successful break down will be a great destruction for the Euro.

Otherwise, a rally from that level and regain the 1.16 zone has a high probability to happen. In that case, we could determine a move on top of the 1.1660 region followed by a potential rally. We can see the overall consolidation below the 1.15 area, which serves as the floor and 1.1850 above as the ceiling of consolidation where we are currently fixed.

It looks like that we will be stuck in this range for the next couple of days or weeks since it's already mid-summer and there many large traders from all over the world who are out of their offices. Aside from that, there are also varying issues regarding the Brexit which causes trading quite noisy and difficult for the EUR/USD currency pair.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 20, 2018 

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The single European currency had broken down amid trading course on Thursday while a lot of negativity continue to be in this market. Forecasts say that the market would likely continue to be volatile but the market is determined to move lower near the 1.15 region, an area which has been a significant support in the past and a little bit of buying pressure can be seen in this zone.  While the current point of at issue is whether or not traders can break down beneath that level. A successful break down will be a great destruction for the Euro.

Otherwise, a rally from that level and regain the 1.16 zone has a high probability to happen. In that case, we could determine a move on top of the 1.1660 region followed by a potential rally. We can see the overall consolidation below the 1.15 area, which serves as the floor and 1.1850 above as the ceiling of consolidation where we are currently fixed.

It looks like that we will be stuck in this range for the next couple of days or weeks since it's already mid-summer and there many large traders from all over the world who are out of their offices. Aside from that, there are also varying issues regarding the Brexit which causes trading quite noisy and difficult for the EUR/USD currency pair.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 23, 2018 

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The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar trades a bit higher during the Monday session. A bit of a reaction was observed as the dollar weakened due to the added pressure on the Trump’s remarks to the Fed policy and his struggle with the strengthening of the greenback. 

Investors reaction to Trump’s rhetorics lead to the tight trading of the pair against the different monetary policy between the hawkish Fed and a dovish central bank of Australia that makes the dollar appealing for investment to traders alike. 

Also, traders are hesitant about their positioning prior to the weekly quarterly consumer inflation data of Australian and increasing Treasury yields from the U.S. 

The major trend has decline based on the daily swing chart. The trend will move up on trades towards .7443 and if it further reaches the level of .7318, the downtrend is likely to continue. 

Short-term trading of the pair will be between .7310 and .7484 with 50% pivot level at .7397. It seems that pair is being traded strongly at this level that could assist an early uptrend tendency. Traders should act on it to counter the support level on the first test today. However, if it fails to hold this level, the price could weaken with the main range at .7677 to .7310. If the trend goes up, then we can expect the retracement zone to be at .7494 to .7537 which will become the primary target in the upside. 

On a technical aspect, the AUD/USD pair will be based on the reaction of the pair for short-term trading at .7434.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 24, 2018 

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Once again, the U.S. dollar dropped against the Japanese yen in day trading on Monday session. There was sufficient support found on the trendline and crossed below the level of 111 yen. It seems that the market is attempting to recover from here. Thus, a short-term bounce might still be far from happening. Predominant selling activity is due to the currency war but, nonetheless, hunters will still find this appealing to reverse the situation. 

As shown on the chart, the price plunged to the uptrend line with intention to bounce up. This can actually be considered as a perfect test of the uptrend line and it looks like value hunters are will attempt to join the market now. A rebound can be bought but there will still be some noise around regardless of what happens next in the days to come. Hence, it is ideal to trade in smaller trade. Although there is sufficient amount of demand below, a lot of noise is present above. In long-term trades, there is a tendency of the pair to move because of the risk appetite. Therefore, in case that trade tension mitigates, the market might turn around. 

On the other hand, if the market breaks lower than the uptrend line, the next target of the market will be the level of 110, which can serve as a support. Hence, it is likely for a correction to happen given the oversold condition of the pair, at least the in the next few trading sessions. Assessing the trend as a whole, there are higher risks on the upper channel than below but with high volatility around, traders should still be careful in trading this market.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 25, 2018 

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The sterling pound moved sideways amid trading session yesterday, with an exception for a slight reversal and bullish pressure. As of this writing, the  ¥146 level above was unable to break. While the previous ascending trend line was broken through which stimulate a little bit of resistance. In case of a slice above the  ¥147 region will prove the strength of the recovery. On the contrary, we can expect for a lot of sideways action in the near term.

There are forecasts that the area under the ¥145 will be supportive which would likely require some pressure to cut through that region. Generally, the market will contain plenty of noise with a slightly downward proclivity as to the concerns about trade battles and the like.

It should be noted that the GBP/JPY currency pair is very sensitive to global risk appetite alongside the added issue of political chaos in Great Britain, which slightly puts off this market downwards. The presence of some reversal is very difficult to deal with but if we reach higher than the  ¥147 level, then new profits will pour in the trading place and would accelerate further. While a break down underneath the  ¥145 level would probably open a way through the  ¥142.50 region.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 26, 2018 

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The British currency drove higher amid trading course yesterday and attempt to grind above the 1.32 level. Generally, we can expect for the resumption of short-term pullbacks which may act as buying opportunities with a slower motion. In this case, shorting this market is not recommended due to the recent formation of some “basing pattern”. Also, there is a possibility of a move through the 1.32 region or 1.3250 eventually.

Traders should take note about the headlines which could possibly trigger issues with the sterling pound aside from the conflict between the Conservative Party and Theresa May, which argues for the common ground of the Brexit. Forecasts show that the market will begin searching for the level below 1.30 as the “absolute floor” of the GBP, hence, longer-term traders will buy the dips based on its value.

For some time, the pound became quite oversold and the “buy-and-hold” traders in the longer-term will return to the market to acquire benefits from lower prices. Ultimately, the dips can be seen turning around with impulsive trends and the top of 1.33 handle would likely be broken but may require a series of attempt to overcome that level.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 31, 2018 

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The single European currency paired with the US dollar and reach higher than the 1.17 region. But, we can see plenty of supply above that level which makes it interesting to break on top of the 1.1730 handle. With that, it indicates a move through the area of 1.1750 but it is hard to break higher until the release of news from the central banks as well as employment figures this week. It is believed that the market will extend to the upside while players search for some short-term selling opportunity in the past.

Aside from that, the market was in a symmetrical triangle and the jobs figure could possibly break out that triangle and we expect a longer-term trade play on Friday. Apparently, the entire scenario might change because of geopolitical issue or some kind of news, however, the market would likely continue to be noisy in the near term while it will be difficult to stay in the longer-term condition. A break above the 1.1750 zone will push the market on top of the 1.1850 region, which is the highest point of the overall consolidation in the longer term.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2018 

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The sterling pound rallied throughout the day on Tuesday until the American hours, because the British currency takes advantage of the rally ahead which is expected to be an increase in the rate. Forecasts show that the market will resume to be very noisy or continue the “buy the rumor, sell the news.”  The level 1.32 would likely be resistive as well as the area of 1.33.

Meanwhile, short-term pullbacks have high chance to happen and in case that the Bank of England will not lift its rates tomorrow, then we can expect for a decline. Generally, the market establishes some kind of “floor” around the 1.30 zone but when the BOE will do something negligent, then a lot of support can be seen.

The buyers of dips anticipate moving over the 1.35 mark in the longer-term. Nevertheless, we should clarify such scenario with the Brexit prior making that move. Indecision might prevail over this market, so traders should keep their trading positions approximately small.

A break down underneath the 1.30 zone will test the 1.29 region consequently, hence, a break down to the downside will be extremely negative. The slightly positive bias range bound system is believed to be the best way to deal with this market.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 3, 2018 

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At the beginning of Tuesday session, the euro dropped sharply with the support level found at 1.16, which is the bottom of the symmetrical triangle as a large round psychological number. Hereinafter, it won’t be long before the market attempts to break out of the symmetrical triangle since the jobs data will reach it. If the pair breaks the level of 1.16, the market could slide down towards 1.15 where there is an important support. Moving around, the pair breaks higher than 1.1750 that offers resistance and breakthrough on this level would push the price towards 1.1850. 

It is not unexpected that the pair will move in the middle of the symmetrical triangle after the trading session with the release of jobs data. There is a lot of noise in the market amid the subdued month of August that slowed things down. It seems that there is a massive support at 1.15 and it will be a significant event for a break lower. It is likely for the price to consolidate in the next few weeks. In this case, a breakout on the symmetrical triangle will dismiss it.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: August 6, 2018 

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The USD/JPY currency pair trades slightly lower on Monday morning, however, the pair was able to keep its position above the Friday’s low. The market lost its entire gains after accelerating to 112.152 level and followed by the Bank of Japan’s decision on monetary policy last week.

While both monetary policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan neutralized each other last week and much of the price activity favored safe haven purchases linked with the increasing trade battle between China and the United States.

Another factor that contributed to the weakening of the USDJPY was the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report that came mixed on Friday. The US labor growth further declined than predicted in July, but the weak jobless rate indicates that the job market conditions tighten. The traders of the dollar/yen pair continue to observe the  U.S. Treasury yields as it dropped on Friday after the labor report. Also, the insufficient economic data on Monday allowed the USDJPY investors to focus on the U.S. Treasury yields and such developments with the trading relationships of the US and China.

Moreover, the expected direction of the USD/JPY for today can be identified by the trader's respond towards the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 111.459 to 111.295 in the near term. A sustained move at 111.459 would likely create the required impetus for an upside bias, while a sustained trend below 111.295 indicates the existence of sellers.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 7, 2018 

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The sterling pound had a significant break down as this week started along with some current issues regarding the Brexit. However, the trend for the next day seems crucial. The level below 1.29 is massively supportive according to the longer-term charts, which serves as the bottom of the zone in FX markets. Hence, a break down under that zone will indicate a longer-term sell signal. 

On the other hand, a reversal and a rebound would prompt buyers to return and pick up some value. This will further heighten some optimistic news from the United Kingdom which involves Brexit.

The next target for a break down is the 1.2750 region or the 1.25 level eventually. The GBP remains to be difficult to deal with due to a lot of concerns regarding its economy. While volatility can be reliable for the pound/dollar for some time.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 8, 2018 

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The U.S. dollar slid down against the Japanese yen to rise on Tuesday, although, there is a bit of noise down below 111 that could reverse the situation and appeal to buyers to jump in. Concerns on trade war continue to prevail on the market, which can be viewed as “ground zero” on the headlines. It may not take long before the traders turn around that can be influenced by the headlines going out. 

Risk appetite moves along with the pair which should be always kept in mind. It is logical that the trading activity will take place in this area in the next 24 hours but if the price breaks lower than 111, there is a possibility for a break down lower than 111. There is a chance if the price moves down to 110.50 and even further to 110. Moving up, the level of 112 offers a lot of resistance and currently, a return to the recent highs may be my target but it is not necessarily a big move to the north, at least not until the trade war between China and the U.S. is settled. There is a high optimism in trading for short-term and traders should expect for choppiness and range-bound trading that is already common at this time of the year.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2018 

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The British currency seesawed during the trading course yesterday while testing the 1.29 region for resistance but, there is no dramatic selloff happened. As of this writing, the GBP/USD is oversold and many professional traders await for a rebound to begin selling again. While retail traders are very good in “chasing the trade” which makes them sell down from that level.

Apparently, there are a lot of problems with Brexit and because of that, people are waiting for the headlines from London especially when it has something to do with the referendum or the consensus with the UK Conservative Party.

Eventually, it seems that the pound/dollar pair would likely reach even lower but traders should not let this to happen because the pair is almost oversold. It should be noted that the level above 1.30 will serve as the resistance. Sooner or later, traders will beat up the sterling pound, however, there are scarcely any of them who are currently selling. It is suggested to move near the 1.2750 zone for the next couple of weeks, but the unity with the Conservative Party would support this market to grow.

It looks like that the weakening of the pound will nearly end because of the few people who remained short in this market and nobody wants to suffer from a rapid price decline. While selling rallies in the near-term on signs of exhaustion is expected to remain effective.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 13, 2018 

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The British pound was priced at 1.2750 in the early session with the support at 1.27. Currently, the pair is traded at 1.2763, dropped by 0.07% on the day, implying signs of consolidation. In the previous week, the pair returned full scale due to risk aversion as a precaution to the Turkish banking sector in the emerging market. Meanwhile, traders are moving back to the US dollar with risk flows at a full reverse while the British pound is presumed to continue with a strong bearish sentiment against the greenback after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney & Trade Secretary Liam Fox gave an indication of a no-deal Brexit possibility.


In the technical perspective, there are hints of a continuous bearish approach despite the fundamental news hinting on a bullish pullback possibility. For a third succeeding week, the pair has been on a bearish decline with no signs that could indicate downward exhaustion and technical indicators of strong downward slopes. The RSI is around 24 at the moment. On the 4-hour chart, the pair moves bearishly with the 20-SMA directed downward at 1.2865 and the momentum indicators just entered a modest upward correction. The technical levels on the resistance level will be at  1.2795, 1.2830, 1.2865  and the support level will be at 1.2720, 1.2680, 1.2645.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 14, 2018 

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The trepidation of European banks has pushed the euro down over the past two days. Some reports reveal that a pastor has been detained in Turkey that could appease the tension between Turkey and the United States. Consequently, this pushed the Turkish lira and eased the pressure and fear in European banks. In these considerations, a resumption higher is likely to take place. Thus, there are technicals that should be monitored such as the level of 1.1475 which was an important supply level previously. Of course, there is the level of 1.15 and beyond that. Needless to say, there is a bit sign of pause and any signs of a problem could cause a rollover of the pair. 

One concern is the little information about the Turkish economy that puts them in the spotlight globally. Hence, the market is likely to be anxious, siding on a safe side over anything else. If the price breaks above the level of 1.154, the price will probably continue to rally substantially. Later on, a short-term rally could be reversed with the choice of wrong words.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 15, 2018 

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The American currency attempted to rally amid trading session on Tuesday, however, the level above ¥111 appears to be very resistive to resume an upward movement. And this does not surprise the market at all since this area had some previous selling. At this moment, the market would likely find enough reason to respond to the current situation of Turkey.

Aside from that, another issue to worry about is the global trade conflicts which involve the United States and China. Eventually, finding a resolution to the current situation will enable the interest rate outlook and interest rate differential of both countries to engage actively in the market. With this, the main focus should be on trade when it comes to the USD/JPY currency pair but when factors involving the USD will ease, there would be a resumption of support. As the market would likely continue to favor this scenario due to increased US interest rates against the difficult status of the Bank of Japan for not being able to imply rate hikes in the future. The ¥110.25 level provides an initial target to the upside, followed by a move towards ¥112 level. A break down from that point, the level below  ¥110 should be supported.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 16, 2018 

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The single European currency slightly edged lower amid trading course on Wednesday, and move lower to the significant level 1.13. It is possible to gain a bit of rebound from that area. Also, some type of selling opportunity is expected to see on rallies and shorting this market will show signs of exhaustion. A lot of concerns remain towards Turkey’s contagion to the EU, which would likely be seen as there is a shortage of US currency around the world.

As expected, the euro was beaten recently which demonstrates occasional value play and look to pick up dips. Traders should wait for a shooting star pattern on the hourly chart and the level above the 1.15 region is the “ceiling” of the market. Moreover, a significant break on top of that zone may consider purchasing this market as shown in the daily chart.

A downward movement can be anticipated in the near future. Based on some technical analysts, the market may reach as low as 1.05 at the end of 2018. The next potential target is 1.13.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 17, 2018 

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The sterling pound attempted to rally yesterday but had some struggle at the 1.2735 level, an area that reaches up to 1.2750 and considered a major support zone in the longer-term charts. Failure to break above that level indicates a short-term rebound that will engage traders to join. The market uses the 1.27 region as a minor support for the daytime trading but it has low chance to change the general forecast for this market in general. The target is at the area of 1.25 which is regarded as a psychologically significant figure.

A break down beneath the 1.25 zone would likely offer an opportunity to sell or give up the sell-off period. It is believed that most of the Brexit selling had already been taken into account but we should expect for some downward pressure. Nevertheless, an extensive flat can be seen and the further scenario will begin when people would realize that the UK will separate from the EU to have its own empire.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 22, 2018 

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The single European currency had rallied amid Asian trading yesterday and further break above the significant level 1.15. Nevertheless, the gains were only temporary followed by a pull back to test the region along with the onset of American hours. Moreover, this seems to be a completely impossible breakout which may lead to the thought that Turkey is still the concern of most traders.

It remains a question whether the hammer formation in the previous week indicates a technical rebound or value hunting. It seems hard to answer for now but we consider it more of a technical correction. There is a potential area that extends towards the 1.1550 region, which could open doors to reach the upside effortlessly and touching that zone will make an impressive situation.

As expected, headlines will move the market but traders should keep an eye to the American dollar as it tries to gain strength since the New York will begin the day. With this, the US dollar will certainly strengthen against the EUR/USD pair. While market players remain concerned about the current status of the European Union since the issue continues to linger in the traders’ minds. Take note of the headlines from Turkey because as their news worsens, it would greatly affect the Euro.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 23, 2018 

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The euro rose higher during the Wednesday session but it may be difficult to reach the level of 1.16. This level may appeal to some value hunters especially close to the level of 1.1570 and the area of 1.15 to be psychologically important. Overall, the market will still worry about the Turkish problem but may be excessively inflated. At the same time, media may overplay the situation given the possibility to repeat another great recession which will quickly attract headlines attention.  

The level of 1.15 is significant as of the moment and if the market can hold this level, there is a chance for the price to rise higher. However, if the opposite happens and turns out negatively, it may wise to begin selling the pair. In this case, it would be best to be optimistic but still heedful until the level of 1.1850, which was previously the trading level at the top of the consolidation range. Noise should be anticipated but keeping in mind that other high-frequency trading algorithms in the market.